Friday, May 08, 2009

About those green shoots

Are we talking about dusky green, dried shoots? Maybe encapsulated in a rolling paper?

From the San Jose Mercury News:
SANTA CRUZ -- Call it a threat or a grim reality. Whatever it is, it's not being welcomed at city halls across California.

The governor's office suggested this week that if the May 19 budget-reform measures are rejected by voters, the state will have to borrow $2 billion from cities and counties.

The proposal, which comes as polls show little hope for the ballot measures, is being met with horror by local governments that face red ink of their own.

"Our budget gap is so big it's beyond anything we could have imagined already," said Santa Cruz City Manager Dick Wilson. "If the state adds this additional burden, it's overwhelming. ... It's appalling beyond words."
And TrimTabs doesn't see any green shoots either:
Sausalito, CA - May 6th, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research estimated today that the U.S. economy shed 745,000 jobs in April as wages and salaries plunged an adjusted 5.7% year-over-year. TrimTabs estimated that the economy shed a record 5 million jobs in the past 12 months.
That's somewhat at odds with BLS's report:
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in April (-539,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 8.5 to 8.9 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Since the recession began in December 2007, 5.7 million jobs have been lost. In April, job losses were large and widespread across nearly all major private-sector industries. Overall, private sector employment fell by 611,000.
To sum up, TrimTabs says 745k jobs lost in April '09.
BLS says 611k.
Difference: 134k.
[Ed. note: Expect to see a large revision upwards next month for the April numbers.]

TrimTabs says 5 million jobs lost since April '08 (past 12 months).
BLS says 5 million jobs lost since December '07.
Difference: BLS claims it has taken 17 months to lose 5 million.
[Ed. note: The BLS are liars.]

TrimTabs doesn't say what they think the unemployment rate is, but we know BLS's 8.9% rate is crapola.

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