Thursday, October 29, 2009

The Recession is over - hello, Depression!

From the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report used to pronounce the recession is dead. They forgot to add "The Depression is here."

In the 1st paragraph the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that 2Q GDP decreased 0.7%, but increased 3.5% in the 3rd quarter.
(Ed. note: No consecutive 4 quarters of growth here.)

In the 2nd paragraph the BEA hedges by saying source data is incomplete and the “second” estimate for 3Q will come out 11/24/09.
(Ed. note: Pretty sure that will be downward revisions – and not covered in the press.)

Motor vehicle output added 1.66% to 3Q – in other words, the cash-for-clunkers is responsible for almost half of GDP growth (as cited by BEA later in their report).

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 7.9 percent
in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 11.4 percent in the second.

Current-dollar personal income decreased $15.5 billion (0.5 percent) in the third quarter, in
contrast to an increase of $19.1 billion (0.6 percent) in the second.

Personal current taxes increased $4.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of
$119.1 billion in the second.
(Ed. note: Income heading down, taxes heading up: not the recipe for recovery.)

Disposable personal income decreased $20.4 billion (0.7 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast
to an increase of $138.2 billion (5.2 percent) in the second.

Cue the Good Times.

Saturday, October 03, 2009

The World Reacts (when pressed on it)

New York City: Chicago Mourns, New York Sympathizes
From the New York Times:
“I think it’s a shame,” said Andrew MacNair, 60, an architect who lives on Central Park West. “It’s the sister city. It’s the cowboy town. We’re the sail port.”
Not exactly sympathy.
[A] majority of New Yorkers supported this city’s Olympic bid, contrary to the perception that New Yorkers cared little for the Games. But Chicago seemed particularly taken with the notion of hosting the Games, at least in terms of publicly expressed enthusiasm.
Actually, Chicago never crossed 50% of public support. Cf. Silver Shovel, Shakman Decree, Parking Meters, Chicago Skyway, Midway Airport, Christopher Kelly, etc.

Milwaukee, WI - Chicago's Failed Olympic Bid Hurt Wisonsin Tourism
Then make the Brewers a winning team, and get over Bret Favre already.

Kansas City, MO - Chicago's Defeat Riles Critics of USOC
"James Ravannack, the president of USA Wrestling, said: 'Resignations. It’s an absolute embarrassment. … Where is the leadership?'"
After making that statement, Mr. Ravannack got Daley into a half-nelson.

Reuters - Obama Olympics Ouch!
“We recognize that we need to do more to make it easier for legitimate visa applicants to make it to the U.S. We understand we have an image problem about that process,” [State Dept Spokesman] Kelly said.
Yes, that's right: it was the federal travel visa to blame.

Toronto, CA - Rio de Janiero Could Boost Toronto's Pan-Am Bid
"[T]hat South America has bagged the biggest sporting prize for the first time gives Toronto a slight edge over competitors Bogota, Colombia, and Lima, Peru, for the Pan American Games."
Is it too late for Chicago to make their pitch?

Friday, October 02, 2009