Thursday, October 29, 2009

The Recession is over - hello, Depression!

From the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report used to pronounce the recession is dead. They forgot to add "The Depression is here."

In the 1st paragraph the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that 2Q GDP decreased 0.7%, but increased 3.5% in the 3rd quarter.
(Ed. note: No consecutive 4 quarters of growth here.)

In the 2nd paragraph the BEA hedges by saying source data is incomplete and the “second” estimate for 3Q will come out 11/24/09.
(Ed. note: Pretty sure that will be downward revisions – and not covered in the press.)

Motor vehicle output added 1.66% to 3Q – in other words, the cash-for-clunkers is responsible for almost half of GDP growth (as cited by BEA later in their report).

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 7.9 percent
in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 11.4 percent in the second.

Current-dollar personal income decreased $15.5 billion (0.5 percent) in the third quarter, in
contrast to an increase of $19.1 billion (0.6 percent) in the second.

Personal current taxes increased $4.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of
$119.1 billion in the second.
(Ed. note: Income heading down, taxes heading up: not the recipe for recovery.)

Disposable personal income decreased $20.4 billion (0.7 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast
to an increase of $138.2 billion (5.2 percent) in the second.

Cue the Good Times.

No comments: